Analysts Have Been Trimming Their ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALPEKA) Price Target After Its Latest Report

The investors in ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:ALPEKA) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 23% to Mex$10.24 in the week following its first-quarter results. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in 3.6% below what the analysts had expected, at Mex$35b. The company broke even in terms of statutory earnings per share (EPS). Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ALPEK. de's twelve analysts is for revenues of Mex$146.8b in 2025. This reflects a modest 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with ALPEK. de forecast to report a statutory profit of Mex$0.91 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$151.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$1.13 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for ALPEK. de

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 10% to Mex$15.63. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic ALPEK. de analyst has a price target of Mex$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$12.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ALPEK. de shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that ALPEK. de's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ALPEK. de to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ALPEK. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ALPEK. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for ALPEK. de you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.