Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALPEKA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for ALPEK. de
What Is ALPEK. de's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2022, ALPEK. de had Mex$39.1b of debt, up from Mex$32.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has Mex$6.32b in cash leading to net debt of about Mex$32.8b.
How Strong Is ALPEK. de's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that ALPEK. de had liabilities of Mex$43.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of Mex$40.7b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had Mex$6.32b in cash and Mex$23.2b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total Mex$55.1b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's Mex$48.1b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
ALPEK. de's net debt is only 1.1 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 14.3 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. In addition to that, we're happy to report that ALPEK. de has boosted its EBIT by 31%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ALPEK. de's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, ALPEK. de recorded free cash flow worth 60% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
ALPEK. de's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. But truth be told its level of total liabilities had us nibbling our nails. Considering this range of data points, we think ALPEK. de is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 4 warning signs with ALPEK. de (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BMV:ALPEK A
ALPEK. de
Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico and internationally.
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.
