Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Missed Revenue By 5.7%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GRUMAB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.5% to Mex$381. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.5b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.34 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Gruma. de. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gruma. de's ten analysts is for revenues of US$6.53b in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 6.3% to US$1.44 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.55 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Gruma. de

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of Mex$413, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Gruma. de's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gruma. de at Mex$480 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$301. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Gruma. de shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Gruma. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Gruma. de.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$413, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gruma. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Gruma. de , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.