Why Caregen's (KOSDAQ:214370) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Despite Caregen Co., Ltd.'s (KOSDAQ:214370) recent earnings report having lackluster headline numbers, the market responded positively. While shareholders may be willing to overlook soft profit numbers, we believe that they should also be taking into account some other factors which may be cause for concern.

View our latest analysis for Caregen

Zooming In On Caregen's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Caregen has an accrual ratio of 0.68 for the year to September 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of ₩35.8b, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through ₩54b in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of ₩54b, this year, indicates high risk.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Caregen's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Caregen's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Caregen's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But at least holders can take some solace from the 13% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Caregen at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Caregen you should be mindful of and 1 of these can't be ignored.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Caregen's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.