With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 15x in Japan, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Tokyu Corporation's (TSE:9005) P/E ratio of 14.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Tokyu as its earnings have been rising slower than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
See our latest analysis for Tokyu
Does Growth Match The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Tokyu's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 4.5% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 1,066% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 4.8% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 9.6% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that Tokyu is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Bottom Line On Tokyu's P/E
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Tokyu's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Tokyu with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.