SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Valuation in Focus After Major U.S. AI Data Center Push and Intel Investment

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Takes Center Stage in AI Infrastructure Expansion

If you have been on the fence about SoftBank Group (TSE:9984), now might be the moment to take a closer look. The company’s high-profile role in the Stargate project, a groundbreaking partnership with OpenAI and Oracle to build out massive AI data centers across the United States, has grabbed investor attention in a big way. With SoftBank leading two of the new sites and Nvidia’s record-breaking investment into these efforts, this is not just another tech headline. It represents a strategic pivot toward large-scale, capital-heavy bets on AI and chip infrastructure.

Momentum in SoftBank Group’s share price reflects this renewed focus. The stock has more than doubled over the past year, outpacing the market on growing expectations for the company’s significant influence in the AI ecosystem. And it is not just Stargate. The recent $2 billion investment in Intel and a decisive move away from broad venture capital bets in favor of concentrated plays in data, chips, and AI have set the tone for a fundamentally different SoftBank than seen before.

After such a rapid rise, the big question is whether the stock’s future growth is already priced in or if there is real value left for investors willing to consider SoftBank’s bold strategy shift.

Most Popular Narrative: 30% Overvalued

According to the most popular narrative, SoftBank Group is currently trading well above its estimated fair value. Analysts view the stock as significantly overvalued when compared to their projections for future earnings and margins.

Ongoing monetization of late-stage and public portfolio companies (e.g., PayPay, Coupang, Chime, eToro, Klarna, Lenskart) via IPOs and strategic exits could unlock substantial realized gains and strengthen SoftBank's revenue, cash flows, and book value.

Want to know why analysts think SoftBank’s share price is outpacing reality? The fair value hinges on ambitious growth expectations and a bold profit forecast that stretches into the future. Curious about the make-or-break assumptions hiding behind the numbers? The next section reveals which metrics could justify or challenge this punchy valuation call.

Result: Fair Value of ¥14,635 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if SoftBank’s AI bets deliver major portfolio gains or if continued buybacks drive up book value, this overvaluation story could quickly unravel.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View: Testing the Numbers a Different Way

Looking at SoftBank Group with a different lens, our DCF model suggests the shares may not be as cheap as hoped, even when future cash flows are considered. Does this add a new wrinkle to the story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding SoftBank Group to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your outlook or you would rather follow your own reasoning, you can build your own view of the numbers in just a few minutes, starting from scratch. Do it your way

A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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