Results: SoftBank Group Corp. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for SoftBank Group Corp. (TSE:9984) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to JP¥13,865 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were JP¥1.8t, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥292, an impressive 256% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, SoftBank Group's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥7.55t in 2026. This would be a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 64% to JP¥432 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥7.53t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥427 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for SoftBank Group

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.1% to JP¥12,168. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on SoftBank Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥17,400 and the most bearish at JP¥8,000 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of SoftBank Group'shistorical trends, as the 3.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 4.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.9% per year. So although SoftBank Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for SoftBank Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for SoftBank Group (2 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.