Did SoftBank’s (TSE:9984) Vision Fund Cuts and AI Pivot Just Shift Its Investment Narrative?

• In September 2025, SoftBank Group reduced its Vision Fund workforce by 20% and redirected capital toward large-scale artificial intelligence and chip infrastructure initiatives, including a prominent data center partnership with OpenAI.
• This move highlights SoftBank's shift away from a diversified startup portfolio to more focused investments in transformative AI and chip technologies.
• We'll examine how SoftBank's concentrated pivot toward AI infrastructure could influence its future investment narrative and growth prospects.

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SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap

For those considering SoftBank Group as a long-term holding, the core thesis centers on confidence in the company's ability to harness secular AI growth and capitalize on targeted bets in major chip and data infrastructure projects. The recent 20% Vision Fund workforce reduction and intensified focus on AI infrastructure may not immediately affect the main short-term catalyst, realized gains via portfolio company IPOs, but does increase business concentration, amplifying exposure to rapid changes in AI investment cycles and valuations. Among recent announcements, SoftBank's partnership to build Stargate UAE with G42, OpenAI, Oracle, and NVIDIA stands out. This alliance directly aligns with the group's stated pivot toward large-scale AI infrastructure, supporting the narrative that AI and data center projects are becoming a primary driver of future asset value and realized returns. On the other hand, if global appetite for major tech IPOs unexpectedly cools, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it's free!)

SoftBank Group's outlook projects ¥8,650.2 billion in revenue and ¥620.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 5.5% annual revenue growth rate and a decrease in earnings of ¥1,110.8 billion from the current ¥1,731.4 billion.

Uncover how SoftBank Group's forecasts yield a ¥14635 fair value, a 20% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for SoftBank Group range from ¥5,771 to ¥14,635 per share, reflecting vastly different outlooks. While some analysts point to AI-fueled catalysts, your view on portfolio monetization risks could shape how you interpret these figures.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group - why the stock might be worth as much as ¥14635!

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SoftBank Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SoftBank Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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