OMRON Corporation's (TSE:6645) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

OMRON Corporation (TSE:6645) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 18% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Japan's Electronic industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may consider OMRON as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.4x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for OMRON

What Does OMRON's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

OMRON could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting the poor revenue to reverse, justifying it's current high P/S.. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Keen to find out how analysts think OMRON's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is OMRON's Revenue Growth Trending?

OMRON's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 11% decrease to the company's top line. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 15% overall rise in revenue. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the ten analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 5.8% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 8.3% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that OMRON's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From OMRON's P/S?

The large bounce in OMRON's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It comes as a surprise to see OMRON trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for OMRON with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of OMRON's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.