Ibiden Co.,Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Ibiden Co.,Ltd. (TSE:4062) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 11% to JP¥5,392. Revenues of JP¥371b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥225, missing estimates by 8.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for IbidenLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for IbidenLtd from 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥401.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 8.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 27% to JP¥287. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥401.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥295 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥7,908, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IbidenLtd at JP¥9,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,900. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the IbidenLtd's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of IbidenLtd'shistorical trends, as the 8.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 8.2% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.0% per year. It's clear that while IbidenLtd's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for IbidenLtd. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for IbidenLtd going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with IbidenLtd .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.