Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) Just Reported Interim Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.7% to JP¥4,493 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥377b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥40.93. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nomura Research Institute

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nomura Research Institute's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥783.5b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.3% to JP¥158. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥783.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥159 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,975, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Nomura Research Institute, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,500 and the most bearish at JP¥4,400 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Nomura Research Institute is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.3% per year. So although Nomura Research Institute is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Nomura Research Institute analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Nomura Research Institute's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.