Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

There's been a major selloff in Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) shares in the week since it released its full-year report, with the stock down 23% to JP¥3,754. Revenues were in line with expectations, at JP¥40b, while statutory losses ballooned to JP¥116 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Money Forward

Following the latest results, Money Forward's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥52.1b in 2025. This would be a substantial 29% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching JP¥17.09 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥52.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥10.62 in 2025. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,748, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Money Forward at JP¥10,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥5,000. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 29% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 32% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.8% annually. So although Money Forward is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Money Forward to become unprofitable next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Money Forward analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Money Forward that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.