ZOZO's (TSE:3092) Solid Earnings Have Been Accounted For Conservatively

ZOZO, Inc.'s (TSE:3092) recent earnings report didn't offer any surprises, with the shares unchanged over the last week. We did some analysis to find out why and believe that investors might be missing some encouraging factors contained in the earnings.

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Examining Cashflow Against ZOZO's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to March 2025, ZOZO recorded an accrual ratio of -0.27. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of JP¥54b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of JP¥45.3b. ZOZO's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On ZOZO's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, ZOZO's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think ZOZO's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 33% per year over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you'd like to know more about ZOZO as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for ZOZO you should be aware of.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of ZOZO's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.