Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 2.0% to JP¥1,958. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥240b were what the analysts expected, Ono Pharmaceutical surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥88.66 per share, an impressive 26% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ono Pharmaceutical

Following last week's earnings report, Ono Pharmaceutical's 13 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥482.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 31% to JP¥140 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥483.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥164 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,152, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ono Pharmaceutical at JP¥4,370 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,800. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ono Pharmaceutical's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,152, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ono Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ono Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Ono Pharmaceutical that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.