Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4519) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4519) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Revenues of JP¥237b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥45.22, missing estimates by 4.1%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Chugai Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Chugai Pharmaceutical's 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.09t in 2024. This would reflect an okay 5.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.4% to JP¥209. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.09t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥209 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,044, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Chugai Pharmaceutical analyst has a price target of JP¥7,410 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,500. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,044, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chugai Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chugai Pharmaceutical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chugai Pharmaceutical you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.