Analysts Are Updating Their Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.1% to JP¥2,208 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues came in 2.7% below expectations, at JP¥438b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥200 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Shionogi are now predicting revenues of JP¥479.3b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥202, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥462.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥197 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Shionogi

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥2,468, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Shionogi analyst has a price target of JP¥3,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,800. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Shionogi'shistorical trends, as the 9.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 9.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.7% annually. So although Shionogi is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shionogi's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,468, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shionogi going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Shionogi Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.