Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 5.7%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:6178) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to JP¥1,354 in the past week. Japan Post Holdings reported JP¥11t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥119 beat expectations, being 5.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

Following the latest results, Japan Post Holdings' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥12t in 2026. This would be a meaningful 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.2% to JP¥127. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥12t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥131 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Japan Post Holdings

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,731, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Japan Post Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,550. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Japan Post Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.3% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.9% per year. Not only are Japan Post Holdings' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,731, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Post Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Japan Post Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.