Pigeon Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Pigeon Corporation (TSE:7956) recently reported its half-year numbers. Revenues of JP¥54b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥19.18, missing estimates by 7.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Pigeon's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥108.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.9% to JP¥73.35 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥108.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥73.68 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Pigeon

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,836, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Pigeon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,200 and the most bearish at JP¥1,600 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Pigeon's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.2% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Pigeon.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Pigeon's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pigeon going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Pigeon you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.