HOYA Corporation Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 11%

Last week, you might have seen that HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to JP¥17,585 in the past week. Results were mixed, with revenues of JP¥214b exceeding expectations, even as earnings per share (EPS) came up short. Statutory earnings were JP¥135 per share, -4.2% below whatthe analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on HOYA after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for HOYA

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from HOYA's 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥855.4b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 7.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.6% to JP¥594. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥823.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥581 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of JP¥22,015, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on HOYA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥26,000 and the most bearish at JP¥19,200 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HOYA's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that HOYA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect HOYA to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HOYA's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for HOYA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com