M3, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a pretty great week for M3, Inc. (TSE:2413) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to JP¥2,169 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥86b were in line with what the analysts predicted, M3 surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥17.44 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on M3 after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering M3 are now predicting revenues of JP¥355.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 15% to JP¥70.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥351.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥69.95 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for M3

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,109. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on M3, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,453 and the most bearish at JP¥1,800 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await M3 shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting M3's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect M3 to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,109, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for M3 going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for M3 you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.