Revenue Beat: Gift Holdings Inc. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 6.4% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders of Gift Holdings Inc. (TSE:9279) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to JP¥3,515 following its latest first-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥80.11 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of JP¥6.8b came in 6.4% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Gift Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Gift Holdings from three analysts is for revenues of JP¥28.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 18% to JP¥109. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥28.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥94.07 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 11% to JP¥3,267. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gift Holdings at JP¥4,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Gift Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that Gift Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Gift Holdings following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gift Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Gift Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Gift Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.