JP¥1,650: That's What Analysts Think Insource Co., Ltd. (TSE:6200) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Shareholders might have noticed that Insource Co., Ltd. (TSE:6200) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to JP¥935 in the past week. Revenues came in 4.8% below expectations, at JP¥3.6b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥39.98 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Insource's four analysts is for revenues of JP¥17.1b in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 26% to JP¥57.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥17.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥58.87 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Insource

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to JP¥1,650, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Insource analyst has a price target of JP¥2,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,300. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.6% annually. So although Insource is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Insource. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Insource's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Insource analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.