Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:6098) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:6098), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥3.6t and statutory earnings per share of JP¥271 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Recruit Holdings is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Recruit Holdings from 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥3.70t in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.6% to JP¥304. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥3.72t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥309 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Recruit Holdings

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥10,087, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Recruit Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥11,500 and the most bearish at JP¥7,900 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Recruit Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Recruit Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Recruit Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥10,087, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Recruit Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Recruit Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.