We Think Hitachi Construction Machinery (TSE:6305) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. (TSE:6305) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Hitachi Construction Machinery

What Is Hitachi Construction Machinery's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Hitachi Construction Machinery had JP¥589.3b of debt, up from JP¥508.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have JP¥153.2b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about JP¥436.1b.

How Strong Is Hitachi Construction Machinery's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hitachi Construction Machinery had liabilities of JP¥703.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of JP¥301.4b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of JP¥153.2b and JP¥259.6b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥592.5b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of JP¥899.2b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

We'd say that Hitachi Construction Machinery's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.8), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 20.7 times, makes us even more comfortable. Importantly, Hitachi Construction Machinery grew its EBIT by 32% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Hitachi Construction Machinery can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Hitachi Construction Machinery actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

Both Hitachi Construction Machinery's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its EBIT growth rate gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. But truth be told its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow had us nibbling our nails. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Hitachi Construction Machinery's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Hitachi Construction Machinery (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.