Toyota Motor Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Toyota Motor Corporation (TSE:7203) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Toyota Motor beat earnings, with revenues hitting JP¥12t, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 10%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Toyota Motor

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Toyota Motor's 18 analysts is for revenues of JP¥48t in 2025. This would reflect a credible 2.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 10% to JP¥330 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥48t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥332 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,659, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Toyota Motor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,000 and the most bearish at JP¥3,000 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Toyota Motor is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Toyota Motor's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Toyota Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyota Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Toyota Motor (2 don't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com