Earnings Beat: Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (TSE:7201) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to JP¥552 in the past week. Revenues were JP¥13t, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥110 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 12%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nissan Motor after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Nissan Motor

Following the latest results, Nissan Motor's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥13t in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 10% to JP¥103 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥106 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥648, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Nissan Motor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,090 and the most bearish at JP¥480 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nissan Motor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nissan Motor is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nissan Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Nissan Motor (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.