Stock Analysis

Those who invested in Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario (BIT:MB) three years ago are up 114%

BIT:MB
Source: Shutterstock

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. Just take a look at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. (BIT:MB), which is up 86%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 34% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 12% in the last year , including dividends .

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario

SWOT Analysis for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario

Strength
  • Dividends are currently covered by earnings and forecast to be covered by earnings in 3 years.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Banks industry.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During three years of share price growth, Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario achieved compound earnings per share growth of 5.1% per year. In comparison, the 23% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
BIT:MB Earnings Per Share Growth April 28th 2023

Dive deeper into Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario's TSR for the last 3 years was 114%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 5% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

Of course Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.

If you're looking to trade Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario, open an account with the lowest-cost platform trusted by professionals, Interactive Brokers.

With clients in over 200 countries and territories, and access to 160 markets, IBKR lets you trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds from a single integrated account.

Enjoy no hidden fees, no account minimums, and FX conversion rates as low as 0.03%, far better than what most brokers offer.

Sponsored Content

New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place

We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.

• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks

Try a Demo Portfolio for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.