NMDC Limited (NSE:NMDC) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

NMDC (NSE:NMDC) has had a rough three months with its share price down 18%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to NMDC's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for NMDC

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for NMDC is:

23% = ₹65b ÷ ₹284b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.23.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

NMDC's Earnings Growth And 23% ROE

To start with, NMDC's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 11% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Yet, NMDC has posted measly growth of 4.6% over the past five years. This is generally not the case as when a company has a high rate of return it should usually also have a high earnings growth rate. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are quite high could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared NMDC's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 27% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if NMDC is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is NMDC Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 36% (or a retention ratio of 64% over the past three years, NMDC has seen very little growth in earnings as we saw above. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, NMDC has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 37%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 22%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that NMDC has some positive attributes. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.