Optimistic Investors Push SIM Technology Group Limited (HKG:2000) Shares Up 30% But Growth Is Lacking

SIM Technology Group Limited (HKG:2000) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 65%.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Communications industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may consider SIM Technology Group as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for SIM Technology Group

How SIM Technology Group Has Been Performing

For example, consider that SIM Technology Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for SIM Technology Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For SIM Technology Group?

SIM Technology Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 35% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 46% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 31% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that SIM Technology Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does SIM Technology Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

SIM Technology Group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that SIM Technology Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for SIM Technology Group that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.