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The Great Strategy Swap – Selling "Old Auto" to Buy "Future Light"

Published
02 Dec 25
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Talos's Fair Value
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1Y
-21.4%
7D
5.9%

Author's Valuation

US$155.3740.2% undervalued intrinsic discount

Talos's Fair Value

Marvell Technology has executed a masterclass in capital allocation. In Q3 Fiscal 2026, they did two things that fundamentally alter the investment thesis: they sold their lower-growth Automotive Ethernet business for $2.5 Billion cash , and announced the acquisition of Celestial AI. This is a clear signal: Marvell is going "All-In" on AI Data Center Infrastructure. With record quarterly revenue of $2.075 Billion (+37% YoY) and guidance accelerating, Marvell is solidifying its position as the critical "plumber" of the AI era, controlling how data moves between Nvidia's GPUs.

1. The Celestial AI Acquisition: The "Moat" Just Got Wider

By acquiring Celestial AI, Marvell secures the "Photonic Fabric" technology. As AI clusters scale, copper cables fail. Celestial's optical interconnect technology allows Marvell to build the "optical backbone" for next-gen data centers. This validates the entire silicon photonics thesis.

2. Custom ASIC Dominance

Marvell isn't just selling standard parts; they are building custom AI chips for Hyperscalers (Amazon AWS, Google). Data center revenue is exploding, driving the full-year growth forecast to >40%.

3. Financial Fortification

The sale of the automotive business generated a massive $1.8 Billion pre-tax gain. This cash injection allows Marvell to fund the integration of Celestial AI and aggressively ramp up R&D without straining the balance sheet.

Conclusion

Marvell Technology ($MRVL) has shed its skin. It sold the slow-moving automotive business to bet the house on the "Speed of Light" (Celestial AI). You are buying the #1 player in optical interconnects just as the AI world realizes that "Connectivity is the new Bottleneck."

PS: If you interested about photonic solutions check my $Poet narrative too.

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Disclaimer

The user Talos has a position in NasdaqGS:MRVL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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