Optical And Custom Silicon Solutions Will Ignite AI Data Centers

Key Takeaways

• Accelerated adoption of custom silicon, optical interconnects, and advanced networking positions Marvell for market share gains and robust, above-forecast revenue growth.
  
• Recurring custom ASIC wins and infrastructure refreshes drive durable earnings, high margins, and stable income streams through diverse, long-term partnerships.
  
• High concentration in cloud and AI markets, along with industry volatility and ongoing acquisition risks, exposes profitability to market, supply chain, and regulatory uncertainties.

Catalysts

Provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions, spanning the data center core to network edge.

• Analyst consensus anticipates Marvell's share of the data center AI market will rise to 20% by 2028, but this likely understates the trajectory, as the rapid acceleration in custom silicon design wins and Marvell's partnerships with both established and emerging hyperscalers position the company to exceed this target and potentially capture even greater market share, driving revenue and earnings well above current forecasts.
  
• Analysts broadly agree that Marvell's leadership in optical interconnect and next-gen DSPs will drive steady growth, but with accelerated adoption of 1.6T and 3.2T optical technologies across hyperscalers and the shift from copper to optics happening faster than consensus expects, Marvell could see higher optical revenue growth and net margin expansion as high-value, low-power solutions rapidly move to mass deployment.
  
• Marvell's strategic investments in scale-up and scale-out switch fabrics, including Ethernet and UALink innovations, position the company as the preferred partner for high-bandwidth, low-latency data movement in AI data centers; as the need to interconnect thousands of XPUs proliferates, these advanced network solutions could unlock multi-billion-dollar incremental revenue streams not yet factored into estimates.
  
• The company's consistent accumulation of high-value, multi-generational custom ASIC wins, combined with a robust and growing $75 billion pipeline opportunity, suggests sticky, recurring revenue and gross margin tailwinds as hyperscale and cloud customers commit to long-term custom silicon partnerships, further reinforcing earnings growth durability.
  
• The ongoing recovery and technology refresh cycle in Marvell's enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure business, strengthened by migration to advanced process nodes and reduced exposure to low-growth sectors post-auto Ethernet divestiture, sets up a powerful dual engine for both high-growth AI data center revenue and stable, high-margin infrastructure income, supporting operating leverage and sustained EPS outperformance.

Marvell Technology Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Marvell Technology compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Marvell Technology's revenue will grow by 23.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -1.4% today to 85.3% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $11.6 billion (and earnings per share of $13.38) by about September 2028, up from $-103.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -534.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Semiconductor industry at 30.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.47% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.44%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Marvell Technology Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Marvell's aggressive pivot to the AI and data center markets has resulted in a business that is now highly concentrated, with over 74 percent of total company revenue coming from data centers and over 90 percent of that tied to cloud and AI hyperscaler demand, making revenue increasingly vulnerable to any slowdown in hyperscaler capital expenditures or shifts in cloud demand.
  
• Significant "lumpiness" and timing issues in custom silicon program ramps, as highlighted by management's repeated discussion of nonlinear growth and quarter-by-quarter swings, suggest heightened exposure to industry cyclicality and inventory swings, which could drive greater long-term earnings volatility.
  
• Marvell's stated intention to pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions alongside substantial historic M&A activity introduces ongoing integration risk and the possibility of overpaying for assets, which could dilute earnings and compress net margins if synergies are not fully realized or if acquired technologies underperform.
  
• Tight supply chains and global geopolitical uncertainty-including dynamic tariff environments and the risk of US-China escalation-could disrupt Marvell's manufacturing and distribution networks, potentially curtailing access to key markets and negatively affecting both revenues and operational efficiency over the longer term.
  
• The continued escalation in R&D spending needed to keep pace in custom silicon and advanced interconnect technologies, coupled with increasing environmental compliance requirements, could pressure operating leverage and reduce net margins, especially if product launches fail to achieve the expected market adoption amid rising industry commoditization.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Marvell Technology is $112.78, which represents two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $86.1. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Marvell Technology's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $122.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $58.2.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $13.6 billion, earnings will come to $11.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $64.1, the bullish analyst price target of $112.78 is 43.2% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.