Founder Holdings Limited's (HKG:418) 28% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Founder Holdings Limited (HKG:418) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 169% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, Founder Holdings may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.3x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

The earnings growth achieved at Founder Holdings over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Founder Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Founder Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Founder Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 16% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen a 27% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Founder Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Founder Holdings' P/E

Shares in Founder Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Founder Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Founder Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Founder Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.