Agile Group Holdings (HKG:3383) Has No Shortage Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Agile Group Holdings Limited (HKG:3383) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Agile Group Holdings

What Is Agile Group Holdings's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2020, Agile Group Holdings had CN¥98.9b of debt, up from CN¥93.6b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥41.5b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥57.4b.

How Healthy Is Agile Group Holdings's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Agile Group Holdings had liabilities of CN¥164.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥65.8b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥41.5b in cash and CN¥41.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥147.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥37.7b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Agile Group Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Agile Group Holdings's net debt is 3.8 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 13.8 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Unfortunately, Agile Group Holdings's EBIT flopped 12% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Agile Group Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Agile Group Holdings saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Agile Group Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Agile Group Holdings has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Take risks, for example - Agile Group Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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