Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Tencent Holdings

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥151.4b	CN¥177.4b	CN¥207.1b	CN¥211.1b	CN¥253.4b	CN¥274.0b	CN¥290.9b	CN¥304.9b	CN¥316.7b	CN¥326.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x9	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 8.13%	Est @ 6.18%	Est @ 4.81%	Est @ 3.85%	Est @ 3.18%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	CN¥138.6k	CN¥148.7k	CN¥158.9k	CN¥148.3k	CN¥162.9k	CN¥161.3k	CN¥156.8k	CN¥150.4k	CN¥143.0k	CN¥135.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.5t

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥327b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.6%) = CN¥4.4t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥4.4t÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= CN¥1.8t

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.3t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$392, the company appears about fair value at a 3.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tencent Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.088. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Tencent Holdings

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Tencent Holdings, we've compiled three further factors you should look at:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Tencent Holdings that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does 700's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.