Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (HKG:2328) After Its Full-Year Report

Shareholders might have noticed that PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (HKG:2328) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to HK$14.40 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of CN¥514b coming in 4.2% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.45, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, PICC Property and Casualty's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CN¥520.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.6% to CN¥1.51. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥522.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.46 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on PICC Property and Casualty's earnings potential following these results.

View our latest analysis for PICC Property and Casualty

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of HK$14.34, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PICC Property and Casualty at HK$15.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$12.10. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that PICC Property and Casualty's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PICC Property and Casualty is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PICC Property and Casualty's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PICC Property and Casualty's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$14.34, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple PICC Property and Casualty analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for PICC Property and Casualty that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.