What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. In light of that, from a first glance at ITV (LON:ITV), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on ITV is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.12 = UK£335m ÷ (UK£4.1b - UK£1.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).
Therefore, ITV has an ROCE of 12%. That's a pretty standard return and it's in line with the industry average of 12%.
Check out our latest analysis for ITV
Above you can see how the current ROCE for ITV compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering ITV for free.
So How Is ITV's ROCE Trending?
In terms of ITV's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 20% that they were earning five years ago. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect ITV to turn into a multi-bagger.
In Conclusion...
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. But investors must be expecting an improvement of sorts because over the last five yearsthe stock has delivered a respectable 50% return. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.
One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with ITV and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.