Stock Analysis

Next 15 Group (LON:NFG shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 9.6% this week, taking three-year losses to 69%

AIM:NFG
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If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Next 15 Group plc (LON:NFG) shareholders. Sadly for them, the share price is down 71% in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 52% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days.

After losing 9.6% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Next 15 Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Next 15 Group became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 20% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Next 15 Group more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
AIM:NFG Earnings and Revenue Growth December 21st 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Next 15 Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Next 15 Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

Next 15 Group shareholders are down 51% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Next 15 Group (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Next 15 Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.