Rio Tinto Group

LSE:RIO Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£80.0b

Rio Tinto Group Valuation

Is RIO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RIO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RIO (£46.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£67.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RIO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RIO?

Key metric: As RIO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RIO. This is calculated by dividing RIO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RIO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.9x
EarningsUS$10.75b
Market CapUS$100.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RIO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RIO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
ANTO Antofagasta
26.2x18.3%UK£15.9b
KMR Kenmare Resources
4.4x3.7%UK£292.2m
GFM Griffin Mining
15.8x-3.8%UK£267.6m
BHP BHP Group
15.9x6.1%AU$200.8b
RIO Rio Tinto Group
8.9x0.9%UK£80.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RIO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.8x-60.3%US$115.18m
ARCM Arc Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$20.03m
RIO 8.9xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RIO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RIO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.9x
Fair PE Ratio18.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RIO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£46.68
UK£60.77
+30.2%
13.8%UK£79.19UK£37.55n/a18
Dec ’25UK£49.37
UK£60.15
+21.8%
13.5%UK£75.29UK£37.16n/a18
Nov ’25UK£50.26
UK£58.87
+17.1%
13.2%UK£73.16UK£37.11n/a18
Oct ’25UK£52.98
UK£58.54
+10.5%
12.8%UK£72.97UK£37.17n/a19
Sep ’25UK£47.70
UK£59.33
+24.4%
13.7%UK£75.29UK£37.23n/a19
Aug ’25UK£50.04
UK£61.73
+23.4%
12.0%UK£77.59UK£46.31n/a19
Jul ’25UK£52.34
UK£61.83
+18.1%
11.8%UK£77.21UK£45.95n/a19
Jun ’25UK£54.76
UK£60.75
+10.9%
11.2%UK£76.77UK£44.93n/a19
May ’25UK£54.26
UK£61.00
+12.4%
11.7%UK£76.71UK£45.10n/a19
Apr ’25UK£50.17
UK£61.05
+21.7%
12.0%UK£78.91UK£44.96n/a19
Mar ’25UK£51.27
UK£62.24
+21.4%
10.2%UK£79.00UK£50.12n/a19
Feb ’25UK£54.87
UK£63.30
+15.4%
10.6%UK£79.58UK£50.84n/a20
Jan ’25UK£58.42
UK£61.42
+5.1%
11.6%UK£79.63UK£51.22n/a19
Dec ’24UK£55.99
UK£58.49
+4.5%
13.1%UK£79.41UK£48.43UK£49.3719
Nov ’24UK£52.62
UK£59.02
+12.2%
12.9%UK£77.52UK£44.95UK£50.2619
Oct ’24UK£51.74
UK£60.19
+16.3%
13.6%UK£78.02UK£44.76UK£52.9819
Sep ’24UK£49.73
UK£59.27
+19.2%
13.2%UK£75.13UK£44.92UK£47.7020
Aug ’24UK£50.95
UK£58.82
+15.4%
13.0%UK£74.50UK£45.17UK£50.0420
Jul ’24UK£49.86
UK£58.12
+16.6%
14.3%UK£74.57UK£38.43UK£52.3420
Jun ’24UK£48.86
UK£60.04
+22.9%
14.0%UK£74.53UK£38.38UK£54.7621
May ’24UK£50.49
UK£59.33
+17.5%
13.7%UK£74.76UK£38.35UK£54.2622
Apr ’24UK£54.78
UK£58.78
+7.3%
13.6%UK£73.34UK£38.42UK£50.1722
Mar ’24UK£59.72
UK£60.34
+1.0%
13.8%UK£75.28UK£37.41UK£51.2723
Feb ’24UK£62.02
UK£59.44
-4.2%
14.2%UK£74.87UK£37.08UK£54.8723
Jan ’24UK£57.98
UK£54.45
-6.1%
14.3%UK£68.11UK£37.06UK£58.4223
Dec ’23UK£55.98
UK£52.66
-5.9%
14.8%UK£67.25UK£37.43UK£55.9923

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 00:34
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Rio Tinto Group is covered by 72 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research