Rio Tinto Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Rio Tinto Group's earnings are forecast to decline at 0.7% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 1.3% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 2.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 17% in 3 years.

Key information

-0.7%

Earnings growth rate

-2.18%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth	21.6%
Revenue growth rate	1.3%
Future return on equity	16.97%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	27 May 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Energy Transition Demand Will Aid Copper And Aluminum Prospects Despite Iron Ore Headwinds

Feb 23 Strategic diversification into copper, aluminum, and lithium aligns with global energy trends, potentially boosting future revenue and aligning with decarbonization efforts.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:RIO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027	55,965	11,031	8,097	17,417	17
12/31/2026	53,048	10,416	6,692	16,935	20
12/31/2025	52,093	10,326	5,542	16,292	20
12/31/2024	53,658	11,552	5,978	15,599	N/A
9/30/2024	53,917	11,151	6,558	15,420	N/A
6/30/2024	54,176	10,749	7,138	15,241	N/A
3/31/2024	54,109	10,404	7,606	15,201	N/A
12/31/2023	54,041	10,058	8,074	15,160	N/A
9/30/2023	53,244	9,312	7,052	13,898	N/A
6/30/2023	52,446	8,566	6,030	12,635	N/A
3/31/2023	54,000	10,479	7,707	14,385	N/A
12/31/2022	55,554	12,392	9,384	16,134	N/A
9/30/2022	57,871	15,079	12,174	19,146	N/A
6/30/2022	60,187	17,724	14,964	22,158	N/A
3/31/2022	61,841	19,409	16,463	23,752	N/A
12/31/2021	63,495	21,115	17,961	25,345	N/A
9/30/2021	60,914	19,930	17,519	24,627	N/A
6/30/2021	58,332	18,766	17,076	23,908	N/A
3/31/2021	51,472	14,268	13,381	19,892	N/A
12/31/2020	44,611	9,769	9,686	15,875	N/A
9/30/2020	43,208	8,483	9,024	15,013	N/A
6/30/2020	41,805	7,196	8,361	14,151	N/A
3/31/2020	42,485	7,603	8,893	14,532	N/A
12/31/2019	43,165	8,010	9,424	14,912	N/A
9/30/2019	42,248	10,699	8,474	13,947	N/A
6/30/2019	41,330	13,388	7,524	12,982	N/A
3/31/2019	40,926	13,513	6,958	12,402	N/A
12/31/2018	40,522	13,638	6,391	11,821	N/A
9/30/2018	40,574	11,738	N/A	12,314	N/A
6/30/2018	40,625	9,837	N/A	12,806	N/A
3/31/2018	40,328	9,300	N/A	13,345	N/A
12/31/2017	40,030	8,762	N/A	13,884	N/A
9/30/2017	38,815	7,486	N/A	12,708	N/A
6/30/2017	37,600	6,209	N/A	11,531	N/A
3/31/2017	35,691	5,413	N/A	9,998	N/A
12/31/2016	33,781	4,617	N/A	8,465	N/A
9/30/2016	33,065	2,329	N/A	8,327	N/A
6/30/2016	32,349	41	N/A	8,188	N/A
3/31/2016	33,589	-412	N/A	8,786	N/A
12/31/2015	34,829	-866	N/A	9,383	N/A
9/30/2015	38,068	1,033	N/A	11,324	N/A
6/30/2015	41,307	2,931	N/A	13,265	N/A
3/31/2015	44,486	4,729	N/A	13,776	N/A
12/31/2014	47,664	6,527	N/A	14,286	N/A
9/30/2014	49,331	6,437	N/A	14,652	N/A
6/30/2014	50,997	6,347	N/A	15,017	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: RIO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: RIO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: RIO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: RIO's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (3.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: RIO's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: RIO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/05/27 00:20
End of Day Share Price	2025/05/27 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Rio Tinto Group is covered by 70 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
David Coleman	Argus Research Company
Russell Wright	Barclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Peter Ward	Barclays

Rio Tinto Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Rio Tinto Group Reaffirms Production Guidance for Full Year 2025

Rio Tinto Provides Iron Ore Update Following Tropical Cyclone Zelia

Rio Tinto Group Revises Production Guidance for the Full Year 2024

Recent updates

Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) proposed to acquire 51% stake in Salares Altoandinos lithium project from Empresa Nacional de Minería.

Jakob Stausholm to Step Down as Chief Executive of Rio Tinto Group Later This Year

Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) signed a binding agreement to acquire 49.99% stake in Salar de Maricunga SpA from Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile for $900 million.

Rio Tinto Extends First Gallium from Its Alumina Refining Process with Partner Indium Corporation

Palliser Capital Sends Letter to Shareholders of Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) completed the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE:ALTM).

Rio Tinto Group Reaffirms Production Guidance for Full Year 2025

Palliser Capital Sends Letter to Rio Tinto

Energy Transition Demand Will Aid Copper And Aluminum Prospects Despite Iron Ore Headwinds

Rio Tinto Provides Iron Ore Update Following Tropical Cyclone Zelia

Rio Tinto and Glencore Reportedly Discussed Merger But Talks No Longer Active

Rio Tinto Group, Annual General Meeting, May 01, 2025

Rio Tinto Group Announces Executive Changes

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. (TSE:5713) agreed to acquire 30% stake in Winu copper-gold project from Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) for approximately $400 million.

Palliser Capital Urges Rio Tinto Scrap its Primary London Listing

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Rio Tinto Announces Initial Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for the Salar Del Rincon Lithium Brine Deposits (Rincon Project) in Argentina to Be Developed

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) completed the acquisition of remaining 20.64% stake in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters Limited

Now 20% undervalued

Rio Tinto Group Revises Production Guidance for the Full Year 2024

Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) proposed to acquire Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE:ALTM).

Arcadium Lithium Confirms Approach by Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Reportedly in Talks to Buy Arcadium

Rio Tinto Announces Interim Dividend for the Half Year Ended 30 June 2024, Payable on 26 September 2024

Rio Tinto Announces Chief Executive Changes

Rio Tinto Group Appoints Sharon Thorne as Director

An undisclosed buyer acquired an unknown minority stake in Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) from The Monks Investment Trust PLC (LSE:MNKS), managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd. for £20 million.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSX:FM) completed the acquisition of 55% stake in La Granja copper project in Peru from Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) for $110 million.