Rio Tinto Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Rio Tinto Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -12.5%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings growing at 4.5% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 0.5% per year. Rio Tinto Group's return on equity is 15.3%, and it has net margins of 17.3%.
Key information
-12.55%
Earnings growth rate
-12.63%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining Industry Growth | 19.58% |
| Revenue growth rate | -0.53% |
| Return on equity | 15.29% |
| Net Margin | 17.29% |
| Next Earnings Update | 29 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 04
RIO: Low-Carbon Aluminium And Copper Projects Will Drive Future Upside
Rio Tinto Group's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted higher from £89.78 to £91.63 as analysts factor in updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E. Recent Street research reflects a mix of higher price targets and rating downgrades based on valuation and macro risk concerns.Narrative Update • May 14
RIO: Copper Outlook And Asset Sales Will Shape Fairly Valued Shares
Analysts have raised the average price target for Rio Tinto Group by about £3 to reflect updated assumptions for fair value, discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, based on recent research that includes several price target increases and a few reductions. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but generally constructive picture for Rio Tinto Group, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets in both US$ and GBp, while a handful of large banks have turned more cautious on valuation and commodity risk.
Narrative Update • Apr 29
RIO: Cautious Tone Will Persist As Copper And Iron Ore Risks Intensify
Rio Tinto Group’s updated analyst price target reflects a modest uplift of about £0.25 per share, with analysts pointing to refreshed commodity assumptions, slightly higher revenue growth expectations, and updated P/E multiples, partly offset by more conservative margin and discount rate inputs. Analyst Commentary Recent research reflects a split view on Rio Tinto Group, with some firms lifting price targets while several bearish analysts have taken a more cautious stance on valuation, commodity exposure, and near term execution risks.Narrative Update • Apr 14
RIO: Cautious Tone Will Tighten As Copper And Iron Ore Risks Deepen
Analysts have slightly lowered the fair value estimate for Rio Tinto Group to £57.66 from £58.52, reflecting updated price targets that balance higher revenue and margin assumptions with a modestly higher discount rate and P/E expectations highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rio Tinto Group reflects a mix of upgraded and downgraded views, with some firms lifting price targets while others trim expectations or move to more neutral stances.Narrative Update • Mar 31
RIO: Cautious Outlook As Copper And Iron Ore Assumptions Turn More Conservative
Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Rio Tinto Group to £58.52 from £41.00. This change reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and sector valuation following a series of mixed price target revisions and rating downgrades across the Street.Narrative Update • Mar 17
RIO: Ended Glencore Talks Will Refocus On Copper And Asset Sales
Analysts have trimmed the blended price target for Rio Tinto Group by roughly £400 to around £7,200, reflecting updated views on commodity risk, iron ore seasonality and valuation after recent share gains. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mixed but generally cautious stance on Rio Tinto, with several firms trimming price targets and shifting ratings toward more neutral positions after a strong share price run.
Narrative Update • Mar 03
RIO: Post Glencore Talks And Copper Outlook Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Rio Tinto Group to the equivalent of about £69.66 per share, from £63.89. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, margins and future P/E, even as recent Street research shows a mix of reduced and raised price targets in the £5,900 to £8,300 range and a shift toward more Neutral and Equal Weight ratings.Narrative Update • Feb 16
RIO: Ended Glencore Talks And Planned Asset Sales Will Support Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Rio Tinto Group higher to about £84 from roughly £83, citing Street research that includes several recent price target increases and mixed rating changes. These changes balance a slightly higher assumed revenue growth rate with a modestly lower profit margin and a marginally higher future P/E and discount rate.Narrative Update • Feb 02
RIO: Potential Glencore Deal And Asset Sales Will Drive Future Upside
The latest Narrative Update on Rio Tinto Group reflects a higher implied fair value of about $83.33 per share, up from roughly $74.17, as analysts adjust their price targets to account for tweaked discount rates, slightly stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rio Tinto Group has been mixed, but there are several clear positives that bullish analysts are highlighting when they adjust their models and targets.Narrative Update • Jan 19
RIO: Megamerger Talks And Critical Mineral Moves Will Shape Medium Term Outlook
Rio Tinto's updated analyst price targets, including recent moves to about £57.00, reflect analysts' use of higher fair value estimates, slightly adjusted discount rates, and refreshed assumptions around revenue, profit margins, and P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are lifting price targets toward about £57.00, which signals more confidence in the underlying fair value they assign to Rio Tinto based on their updated models.Narrative Update • Jan 05
RIO: Higher Commodity Exposure And Asset Sales Will Drive Future Upside
Analyst price targets for Rio Tinto Group have shifted higher overall, with recent moves such as Citi lifting its target to £57.00 from £46.00 and other banks adjusting into the £52.00 to £61.70 range, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a generally constructive tone around Rio Tinto Group, with several bullish analysts adjusting their price targets into a higher £52.00 to £61.70 band.Narrative Update • Dec 17
RIO: Stronger Commodity Pricing And Cost Discipline Will Drive Upside Potential
Rio Tinto Group's analyst price target has been revised higher, with fair value estimates rising from approximately 65.08 to 74.18 as analysts factor in stronger expected revenue growth, wider profit margins, and a more favorable, though slightly higher risk-adjusted, earnings multiple implied by the latest round of target hikes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a constructive tone on Rio Tinto, with a series of price target increases signaling growing confidence in the company’s earnings power and balance of risk and reward.Narrative Update • Dec 03
RIO: Critical Mineral Moves And Board Decisions Will Shape Medium Term Outlook
Rio Tinto Group's analyst price target has edged higher to approximately $57.09 from about $56.84, as analysts broadly lift their expectations on the shares amid a series of upward revisions to U.K. price targets, despite slightly softer long term growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent price target revisions indicate that bullish analysts see further upside for Rio Tinto shares, with multiple upward adjustments across the U.K. coverage universe.Narrative Update • Nov 19
RIO: Upcoming Board Decisions And Mineral Trade Shifts Will Shape Outlook
Rio Tinto Group's analyst price target has been increased from £56.23 to £56.84, as analysts point to improved revenue growth estimates. Recent upward revisions from major firms also support a slightly stronger outlook for the stock.Narrative Update • Nov 03
RIO: Steady Copper And Iron Ore Outlook Will Offset Operational And Governance Risks
Rio Tinto Group’s analyst price target has been adjusted upward from £54.85 to £56.23. This reflects analysts’ expectations for steady fundamentals in light of recent incremental changes in revenue growth and profit margin forecasts.Narrative Update • Oct 20
Energy Transition Will Accelerate Copper And Lithium Expansion Despite Headwinds
Rio Tinto Group's analyst price target has risen to £54.85 from £53.30. This reflects analysts' expectations for improved revenue growth and profit margins, despite ongoing adjustments to market risk assessments.Narrative Update • Oct 05
Energy Transition Will Accelerate Copper And Lithium Expansion Despite Headwinds
Rio Tinto Group's analyst price target has been modestly increased to £53.30 from £52.27, reflecting analysts' expectations for improved revenue growth and profitability, even as caution remains around iron ore market risks. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates highlight a mix of confidence and caution surrounding Rio Tinto Group's outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 20
Energy Transition Will Accelerate Copper And Lithium Expansion Despite Headwinds
Analyst price targets for Rio Tinto Group have increased modestly to £52.27 as bullish analysts cited strong operational performance despite iron ore demand concerns and sector headwinds, though target upgrades remain incremental. Analyst Commentary Rising downside risks to iron ore prices, particularly in the near term, have led to more cautious outlooks and downgrades by bearish analysts.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Energy Transition Will Accelerate Copper And Lithium Expansion Despite Headwinds
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Rio Tinto Group to £51.49, reflecting increased caution due to downside risks in iron ore prices and muted Chinese stimulus, with earnings estimates trimmed and consensus now factoring a more conservative commodity outlook. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts flag downside risks to iron ore prices, particularly in the months ahead, impacting Rio Tinto’s earnings outlook.
New Narrative • Feb 23
Energy Transition Demand Will Aid Copper And Aluminum Prospects Despite Iron Ore Headwinds
Strategic diversification into copper, aluminum, and lithium aligns with global energy trends, potentially boosting future revenue and aligning with decarbonization efforts.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Rio Tinto Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 57,638 | 9,966 | 933 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 55,684 | 10,119 | 989 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 53,729 | 10,272 | 1,044 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 53,694 | 10,912 | 1,123 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 53,658 | 11,552 | 1,202 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 53,917 | 11,151 | 1,258 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 54,176 | 10,749 | 1,320 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 54,109 | 10,404 | 1,431 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 54,041 | 10,058 | 1,539 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 53,244 | 9,312 | 1,648 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 52,446 | 8,566 | 1,755 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 54,000 | 10,479 | 1,584 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 55,554 | 12,392 | 1,411 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 57,871 | 15,079 | 1,354 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 60,187 | 17,724 | 1,300 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 61,841 | 19,409 | 1,279 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 63,495 | 21,115 | 1,255 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 60,914 | 19,930 | 1,134 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 58,332 | 18,766 | 1,014 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 51,472 | 14,268 | 992 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 44,611 | 9,769 | 968 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 43,208 | 8,483 | 964 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 41,805 | 7,196 | 960 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 42,485 | 7,603 | 964 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 43,165 | 8,010 | 966 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 42,248 | 10,699 | 1,149 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 41,330 | 13,388 | 1,330 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 40,926 | 13,513 | 1,303 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 40,522 | 13,638 | 1,275 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 40,574 | 11,738 | 1,444 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 40,625 | 9,837 | 502 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 40,328 | 9,300 | 474 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 40,030 | 8,762 | 1,000 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 38,815 | 7,486 | 425 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 37,600 | 6,209 | 405 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 35,691 | 5,413 | 451 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 33,781 | 4,617 | 497 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 33,065 | 2,329 | 549 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 32,349 | 41 | 600 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 33,589 | -412 | 588 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 34,829 | -866 | 576 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 38,068 | 1,033 | 613 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 41,307 | 2,931 | 650 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: RIO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: RIO's current net profit margins (17.3%) are lower than last year (21.5%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: RIO's earnings have declined by 12.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: RIO's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: RIO had negative earnings growth (-13.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (77.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: RIO's Return on Equity (15.3%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/12 00:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Rio Tinto Group is covered by 51 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Amos Fletcher | Barclays |
| Peter Ward | Barclays |