Update shared on20 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.51%Analyst price targets for Rio Tinto Group have increased modestly to £52.27 as bullish analysts cited strong operational performance despite iron ore demand concerns and sector headwinds, though target upgrades remain incremental.
Analyst Commentary
- Rising downside risks to iron ore prices, particularly in the near term, have led to more cautious outlooks and downgrades by bearish analysts.
- Some bearish analysts cite the lack of clear stimulus from China as a key reason for reduced iron ore demand expectations and cut their earnings estimates for 2025-27.
- Several analysts trimmed price targets slightly to reflect sector-wide metals & mining headwinds, despite generally maintaining positive ratings.
- Bullish analysts point to Rio Tinto's consistent operational performance and continued preference within the sector, even amid modest target adjustments.
- Upward price target revisions from some bullish analysts reflect positive company fundamentals, though increases are incremental and tempered by broader macro uncertainty.
What's in the News
- Rio Tinto approved a USD 180 million investment and commenced construction on the Norman Creek access project at the Amrun bauxite mine, with first production targeted for 2027; also initiated feasibility study on the Kangwinan project, potentially expanding Weipa Southern bauxite production by up to 20 million tonnes annually.
- The company signed a binding joint venture agreement with ENAMI to develop the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in Chile, acquiring a 51% interest and committing up to $425 million subject to approvals.
- Simon Trott was appointed Group Chief Executive, succeeding Jakob Stausholm effective 25 August 2025.
- Reported H1 2025 production: Pilbara iron ore shipments 150.6 Mt, Bauxite 30.6 Mt, Alumina 3.7 Mt, Aluminium 1.7 Mt, Copper 438 kt, Titanium dioxide slag 0.5 Mt, IOC iron ore pellets/concentrate 4.8 Mt, Boric oxide 0.2 Mt.
- Announced a 2025 interim dividend of 148 US cents per share for H1 2025, with payment scheduled for September 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Rio Tinto Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from £51.49 to £52.27.
- The Future P/E for Rio Tinto Group has significantly fallen from 13.14x to 9.90x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Rio Tinto Group has risen slightly from 1.9% per annum to 1.9% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.