Antofagasta plc

LSE:ANTO Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£16.0b

Antofagasta Valuation

Is ANTO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ANTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ANTO (£16.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£80.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ANTO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ANTO?

Key metric: As ANTO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ANTO. This is calculated by dividing ANTO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ANTO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.2x
EarningsUS$764.30m
Market CapUS$20.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ANTO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ANTO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.2x
ATYM Atalaya Mining
23x39.1%UK£492.7m
CAML Central Asia Metals
8.4x12.6%UK£271.4m
FRES Fresnillo
23.8x33.8%UK£4.7b
SMDS DS Smith
33.7x20.0%UK£7.5b
ANTO Antofagasta
26.2x18.3%UK£16.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ANTO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x) compared to the peer average (22.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ANTO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.8x-60.3%US$116.04m
ARCM Arc Minerals
1.9xn/aUS$20.45m
ANTO 26.2xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ANTO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ANTO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ANTO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.2x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ANTO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ANTO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£16.18
UK£19.12
+18.2%
16.1%UK£24.92UK£13.42n/a19
Dec ’25UK£17.03
UK£19.64
+15.3%
16.4%UK£25.20UK£13.43n/a19
Nov ’25UK£17.63
UK£18.97
+7.6%
17.2%UK£24.55UK£13.01n/a19
Oct ’25UK£19.93
UK£18.77
-5.8%
16.2%UK£24.53UK£13.61n/a18
Sep ’25UK£18.53
UK£19.11
+3.1%
15.4%UK£24.75UK£13.73n/a17
Aug ’25UK£19.25
UK£19.94
+3.6%
17.6%UK£25.97UK£14.09n/a17
Jul ’25UK£21.13
UK£19.62
-7.2%
20.1%UK£26.27UK£11.07n/a17
Jun ’25UK£22.03
UK£18.59
-15.6%
24.0%UK£26.02UK£10.97n/a17
May ’25UK£21.68
UK£18.38
-15.2%
24.0%UK£25.87UK£10.12n/a17
Apr ’25UK£20.39
UK£16.47
-19.2%
23.4%UK£22.43UK£10.00n/a17
Mar ’25UK£18.17
UK£15.35
-15.5%
19.7%UK£21.10UK£10.05n/a17
Feb ’25UK£17.49
UK£15.34
-12.3%
20.4%UK£21.07UK£10.04n/a17
Jan ’25UK£16.80
UK£14.27
-15.0%
18.0%UK£19.00UK£9.65n/a17
Dec ’24UK£14.96
UK£13.87
-7.3%
18.8%UK£18.68UK£9.65UK£17.0317
Nov ’24UK£13.13
UK£14.42
+9.8%
18.5%UK£18.96UK£10.77UK£17.6317
Oct ’24UK£14.29
UK£14.89
+4.2%
19.6%UK£19.93UK£10.80UK£19.9317
Sep ’24UK£14.71
UK£14.49
-1.5%
17.9%UK£19.10UK£10.80UK£18.5317
Aug ’24UK£16.52
UK£14.82
-10.3%
15.5%UK£19.16UK£10.72UK£19.2517
Jul ’24UK£14.61
UK£15.02
+2.8%
16.6%UK£19.65UK£9.51UK£21.1317
Jun ’24UK£13.80
UK£15.34
+11.1%
18.1%UK£22.01UK£9.71UK£22.0317
May ’24UK£14.61
UK£15.00
+2.7%
17.9%UK£21.91UK£9.67UK£21.6816
Apr ’24UK£15.81
UK£14.79
-6.4%
19.4%UK£22.50UK£9.71UK£20.3916
Mar ’24UK£16.36
UK£14.95
-8.6%
19.9%UK£23.18UK£9.33UK£18.1716
Feb ’24UK£17.31
UK£14.49
-16.3%
22.6%UK£23.05UK£9.29UK£17.4916
Jan ’24UK£15.46
UK£12.31
-20.3%
14.3%UK£16.21UK£9.51UK£16.8017
Dec ’23UK£14.06
UK£11.48
-18.4%
16.4%UK£16.33UK£8.86UK£14.9617

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 19:53
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Antofagasta plc is covered by 48 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
Izak RossouwBarclays
Peter WardBarclays