Fresnillo plc

LSE:FRES Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.8b

Fresnillo Valuation

Is FRES undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FRES when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FRES (£6.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£8.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FRES is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FRES?

Key metric: As FRES is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FRES. This is calculated by dividing FRES's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FRES's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.7x
EarningsUS$247.83m
Market CapUS$6.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FRES vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.1x
JLP Jubilee Metals Group
24.6x55.6%UK£112.9m
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.1b
SLP Sylvania Platinum
18.5x43.0%UK£104.7m
CRDA Croda International
28.6x15.2%UK£4.7b
FRES Fresnillo
23.7x33.8%UK£4.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FRES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the peer average (23.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.8x-60.3%US$121.14m
ARCM Arc Minerals
2xn/aUS$22.40m
FRES 23.7xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FRES is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FRES's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FRES PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.7x
Fair PE Ratio27.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FRES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FRES forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£6.32
UK£8.14
+28.9%
12.9%UK£11.18UK£6.50n/a13
Dec ’25UK£6.46
UK£8.25
+27.8%
13.3%UK£11.24UK£6.56n/a13
Nov ’25UK£7.36
UK£7.86
+6.9%
15.7%UK£11.32UK£6.41n/a13
Oct ’25UK£6.22
UK£7.10
+14.1%
17.1%UK£10.62UK£6.03n/a13
Sep ’25UK£5.42
UK£7.08
+30.7%
17.8%UK£10.83UK£6.02n/a13
Aug ’25UK£5.92
UK£7.29
+23.2%
18.7%UK£11.07UK£6.11n/a12
Jul ’25UK£5.63
UK£7.04
+25.2%
21.8%UK£11.16UK£5.60n/a12
Jun ’25UK£6.20
UK£6.96
+12.4%
22.2%UK£11.11UK£5.39n/a12
May ’25UK£5.63
UK£6.61
+17.5%
24.2%UK£11.29UK£4.88n/a12
Apr ’25UK£4.70
UK£5.93
+26.1%
32.0%UK£11.46UK£3.84n/a12
Mar ’25UK£4.64
UK£6.13
+32.3%
29.8%UK£10.92UK£3.82n/a12
Feb ’25UK£5.22
UK£6.28
+20.4%
29.9%UK£10.88UK£3.81n/a12
Jan ’25UK£5.94
UK£6.67
+12.2%
25.4%UK£10.90UK£3.66n/a12
Dec ’24UK£5.93
UK£6.65
+12.1%
25.9%UK£11.00UK£3.69UK£6.4612
Nov ’24UK£5.44
UK£6.78
+24.5%
27.6%UK£11.33UK£3.38UK£7.3612
Oct ’24UK£5.51
UK£7.20
+30.7%
26.2%UK£11.88UK£3.46UK£6.2212
Sep ’24UK£5.69
UK£6.93
+21.7%
24.7%UK£11.45UK£3.33UK£5.4214
Aug ’24UK£5.91
UK£7.21
+22.0%
22.2%UK£11.43UK£5.27UK£5.9214
Jul ’24UK£6.10
UK£7.70
+26.2%
20.7%UK£11.85UK£5.98UK£5.6314
Jun ’24UK£6.77
UK£7.87
+16.2%
20.1%UK£12.01UK£6.06UK£6.2014
May ’24UK£7.11
UK£7.80
+9.7%
20.6%UK£11.95UK£5.88UK£5.6314
Apr ’24UK£7.46
UK£7.86
+5.4%
19.6%UK£11.68UK£5.96UK£4.7014
Mar ’24UK£7.78
UK£8.76
+12.5%
14.7%UK£11.95UK£7.18UK£4.6415
Feb ’24UK£8.10
UK£8.65
+6.8%
14.8%UK£11.83UK£7.00UK£5.2215
Jan ’24UK£9.02
UK£8.43
-6.5%
17.7%UK£11.11UK£6.21UK£5.9416
Dec ’23UK£9.03
UK£8.17
-9.5%
20.2%UK£12.80UK£6.25UK£5.9316

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 18:48
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Fresnillo plc is covered by 36 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David Simon ButlerBarclays
Amos FletcherBarclays
Richard HatchBerenberg