Fresnillo plc

LSE:FRES Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£22.2b

Fresnillo Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Fresnillo's earnings are forecast to decline at 2.7% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 1.5% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 0.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 33.9% in 3 years.

Key information

-2.7%

Earnings growth rate

-0.67%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth11.5%
Revenue growth rate1.5%
Future return on equity33.88%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated10 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 09

FRES: Higher Precious Metal Output And Dividend Support Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Analysts have trimmed the Fresnillo fair value estimate from £53.03 to £51.58, reflecting a series of reduced price targets and more cautious assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and valuation after recent research updates from multiple banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo shows a wide spread of views, with some analysts highlighting valuation risks and others still backing the stock with higher price targets and constructive ratings.
Narrative Update • Aug 26

FRES: Lower Profitability Expectations Will Pressure Returns Despite Dividend Support

The updated analyst price target for Fresnillo moves to £21.82 from £20.86, as analysts factor in mixed expectations for margins, growth and valuation across recent Hold, Sector Perform, Equal Weight, Overweight, Buy and Underweight views. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo shows a split in opinion, with some firms highlighting improving fundamentals while others flag valuation and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Aug 12

FRES: Improving Fundamentals And Dividend Capacity Will Support Higher Future Multiple

The analyst fair value estimate for Fresnillo has moved from about £28.64 to about £33.30 as analysts factor in a mix of adjusted price targets across the Street, with expectations for improving fundamentals, changes in assumed revenue growth and margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view on the stock, with some analysts pointing to potential upside based on earnings power and others highlighting valuation and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Jul 29

FRES: Higher Precious Metal Output And Execution Progress Will Support Re Rating Potential

Fresnillo's updated fair value estimate edges down to £53.03 from £54.36 as analysts trim price targets, with recent cuts ranging from £2,090 to £4,800, citing valuation and mixed views on growth and profitability to support more cautious assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo highlights a mix of caution and optimism, with several bullish analysts pointing to valuation support and execution potential despite lower price targets.
Narrative Update • Jul 14

FRES: Production Slippage And Execution Risks Will Pressure Future Returns

The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been revised lower by £4.55 to £20.86, with analysts citing updated fair value assumptions and valuation multiples as the key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary on Fresnillo Recent Street research on Fresnillo points to a more cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming their price targets and highlighting risks around valuation assumptions and the company’s ability to execute against expectations.
Narrative Update • Jun 30

FRES: Production Slippage And Mixed Street Views Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been revised slightly higher to £25.41 from £24.72. Analysts cite updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E as key drivers of the change.
Narrative Update • Jun 16

FRES: Higher Revenue Assumptions And Cost Discipline Will Support Re Rating Potential

The analyst price target for Fresnillo has shifted to reflect a modest fair value adjustment to £54.36, as analysts reassessed assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following a series of mixed target changes from Citi, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Berenberg. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo highlights a split in opinion, but there are clear areas where bullish analysts see room for the stock to better reflect their reassessed fair value assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jun 02

FRES: Higher Revenue And Margin Assumptions Will Support Re Rating Potential

Fresnillo’s updated analyst price target has moved sharply higher to about £53.62 from £20.84, as analysts factor in new assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that differ from recent mixed price target revisions in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some firms cutting price targets while others lift their estimates and reaffirm more cautious ratings.
Narrative Update • May 18

FRES: Production Slippage And Diverging Street Views Will Pressure Future Returns

Fresnillo’s updated analyst price target has shifted to reflect mixed recent moves, including a £4.00 increase at Citi and several reductions of £1.00 to £4.00 at other firms, as analysts factor in revised assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some higher price targets sitting alongside a series of reductions.
Narrative Update • May 04

FRES: Production Slippage And Mixed Street Views Will Pressure Future Returns

Fresnillo’s analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from £23.88 to £24.72. The change reflects recent mixed price target revisions across the Street and updated assumptions on long term revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 20

FRES: Execution Risks Around Multi Year Production Guidance Will Likely Intensify

The analyst price target for Fresnillo has increased to £23.88 from £21.82, with analysts citing adjusted expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, along with mixed recent target changes from major banks, as support for the new fair value. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a split in sentiment on Fresnillo, with some major banks lifting targets while others have taken a more cautious stance on valuation and execution.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

FRES: Mixed Rating Shifts Will Likely Expose Mounting Execution Risk

The Fresnillo analyst price target has been reduced by about £0.17 per share, as analysts factor in slightly higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, together with a modestly lower P/E and discount rate following recent mixed rating and target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some firms lifting targets while others trim expectations or ratings.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

FRES: Higher Revenue Hopes Will Likely Mask Growing Execution Risk

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Fresnillo from £16.62 to £21.99 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, a lower future P/E multiple, and recent mixed but generally higher Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo has sent mixed signals, with several firms adjusting price targets in different directions and one downgrade in the mix.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

FRES: Higher Metal Price Optimism Will Likely Mask Execution And Margin Risks

Analysts have modestly revised their fair value estimate for Fresnillo to £16.62 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue, profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E multiple following recent price target increases from several banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo points to a mixed stance, with some high profile price target adjustments sitting alongside more cautious views on the shares.
Analysis Article • Jan 16

Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump

Fresnillo plc ( LON:FRES ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. The...
Narrative Update • Jan 09

FRES: Elevated Gold Price Forecasts Will Likely Drive Future Multiple Compression

Fresnillo’s updated fair value estimate has moved from £24.12 to £28.64 per share. This reflects analysts’ higher price targets and refreshed assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels.
Narrative Update • Dec 23

FRES: Higher Precious Metal Price Hopes Will Likely Overstate Future Earnings Potential

Fresnillo's analyst price target has been lifted sharply, rising from about 950 GBp to a range of 3,000 to 4,300 GBp, as analysts factor in stronger expected revenue growth, higher profit margins and a more constructive long-term precious metals price outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent target price revisions for Fresnillo highlight a wide dispersion in analyst expectations, reflecting divergent views on the sustainability of the company’s earnings recovery and leverage to higher precious metals prices.
Analysis Article • Dec 23

These 4 Measures Indicate That Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Is Using Debt Safely

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Narrative Update • Dec 09

FRES: Elevated Gold Price Assumptions Will Likely Expose Downside If Metals Normalize

Our analyst price target for Fresnillo has been raised in line with the Street, which has lifted targets as high as 4,300 GBp per share. This reflects analysts' increasingly optimistic assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and long term precious metal pricing.
Analysis Article • Dec 02

Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump

Despite an already strong run, Fresnillo plc ( LON:FRES ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last...
Narrative Update • Nov 25

FRES: Higher Gold Price Forecasts Will Drive Moderate Upside Amid Ongoing Market Risks

Fresnillo's analyst price target has increased from £24.10 to £24.24 per share. Analysts cite improving revenue growth, stronger profit margins, and positive sector sentiment as key drivers for the upward revision.
Analysis Article • Nov 20

Here's Why We Think Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Is Well Worth Watching

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
Narrative Update • Nov 10

FRES: Increased Gold Price Forecasts Will Influence Share Performance Amid Sector Volatility

Analysts have sharply increased their price target on Fresnillo, with estimates rising from approximately £22.64 to £24.10 per share. They cite stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and optimism from higher long-term gold price forecasts.
Narrative Update • Oct 27

Long-Term Gold Price Strength Will Drive Profitability And Earnings Outlook

Fresnillo's analyst price target has been raised significantly, increasing from £18.36 to £22.64, as analysts anticipate stronger revenue growth and improved profit margins. This change is driven by higher long-term gold price forecasts.
Narrative Update • Oct 13

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been raised significantly from £16.26 to £18.36. Analysts cite expectations for improved revenue growth and sector tailwinds that may support higher future valuations.
Narrative Update • Sep 29

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

Analysts have raised Fresnillo’s price target to £16.26, driven by bullish views on sustained higher silver prices and improved operating outlook, though some caution that current valuations already reflect lofty silver price assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite a substantially improved silver price backdrop, raising expectations for Fresnillo's earnings and cash flows.
Analysis Article • Sep 18

Is Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Using Too Much Debt?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Narrative Update • Sep 14

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

Fresnillo’s analyst price target has been revised higher to £14.56 amid improved silver market fundamentals and a strengthened production outlook, though some caution that valuation now assumes an optimistic silver price scenario with limited downside protection. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite improved silver market fundamentals and strengthening price outlook as key drivers for raising targets.
Narrative Update • Aug 30

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

Fresnillo's consensus analyst price target was raised to £14.18 as analysts anticipate stronger earnings and cash flows on higher silver price forecasts, though concerns remain that the current share price already reflects overly optimistic long-term silver assumptions and presents a less compelling risk-reward, limiting further upside at current valuation. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets based on a substantially improved silver price outlook and more favorable sector backdrop.
Narrative Update • Aug 15

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

Despite improved silver price outlooks and operational momentum underpinning bullish sentiment, analysts note that current valuation already prices in optimistic assumptions and offers limited upside, resulting in the consensus price target for Fresnillo holding steady at £13.70. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite a substantially improved outlook for silver prices, supporting upward revisions in price targets.
User avatar
New Narrative • Mar 09

Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life

Operational discipline and infrastructure improvements are set to enhance production efficiency, lower costs, and potentially boost future net margins and earnings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:FRES - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,2502,1042,0572,75210
12/31/20276,4582,1691,9962,67511
12/31/20266,2752,1681,9992,68411
6/30/20266,0082,2802,2642,743N/A
3/31/20265,2841,8322,0772,516N/A
12/31/20254,5611,3841,8902,290N/A
9/30/20254,2539201,7362,115N/A
6/30/20253,9444561,5821,940N/A
3/31/20253,7202981,2561,620N/A
12/31/20243,4961419291,300N/A
9/30/20243,173194562960N/A
6/30/20242,850248194620N/A
3/31/20242,77824168523N/A
12/31/20232,705234-57426N/A
9/30/20232,611227-133369N/A
6/30/20232,517219-208313N/A
3/31/20232,475246-149407N/A
12/31/20222,433272-90502N/A
9/30/20222,46425427640N/A
6/30/20222,495236144778N/A
3/31/20222,599329224837N/A
12/31/20212,703421303895N/A
9/30/20212,773516412951N/A
6/30/20212,8436125201,007N/A
3/31/20212,636493513962N/A
12/31/20202,430374505918N/A
9/30/20202,301286352804N/A
6/30/20202,172198198691N/A
3/31/20202,146201N/A563N/A
12/31/20192,120204N/A436N/A
9/30/20192,055197N/A413N/A
6/30/20191,991190N/A389N/A
3/31/20192,047270N/A489N/A
12/31/20182,104350N/A588N/A
9/30/20182,158416N/A681N/A
6/30/20182,213482N/A774N/A
3/31/20182,153521N/A768N/A
12/31/20172,093561N/A761N/A
9/30/20172,054565N/A803N/A
6/30/20172,014569N/A844N/A
3/31/20171,960498N/A871N/A
12/31/20161,906427N/A898N/A
9/30/20161,742294N/A793N/A
6/30/20161,579161N/A687N/A
3/31/20161,512116N/A615N/A
12/31/20151,44471N/A543N/A
9/30/20151,46763N/A387N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FRES's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: FRES's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FRES's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FRES's revenue (1.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (3.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FRES's revenue (1.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FRES's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (33.9%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/14 17:37
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/14 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Fresnillo plc is covered by 28 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David Simon ButlerBarclays
Amos FletcherBarclays
Richard HatchBerenberg