Update shared on15 Aug 2025
Despite improved silver price outlooks and operational momentum underpinning bullish sentiment, analysts note that current valuation already prices in optimistic assumptions and offers limited upside, resulting in the consensus price target for Fresnillo holding steady at £13.70.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite a substantially improved outlook for silver prices, supporting upward revisions in price targets.
- Upgraded ratings and targets reflect positive momentum in Fresnillo’s operational performance and production outlook.
- Some analysts note that current share prices already reflect very optimistic long-term silver price assumptions, limiting further upside.
- Concerns from bearish analysts include a negative risk-reward skew after a steep 2025 re-rating, suggesting limited valuation safety buffer.
- Preference among some cautious analysts for a better entry point with more favorable upside potential, despite improved silver market fundamentals.
What's in the News
- Fresnillo's Board declared an interim dividend of 20.8 US cents per share, totaling USD 153.3 million, payable in September 2025.
- Updated and reaffirmed production guidance for 2025-2027, with 2025 silver output expected at 47.5–54.5 moz (prior guidance 49.0–56.0 moz), and gold at 550–590 koz (prior: 525–580 koz).
- Reported Q2 2025 gold production of 157,735 oz (up from 130,025 oz YoY), while silver production fell to 12,506 koz (from 14,655 koz), and lead and zinc output also declined YoY.
- Declared an interim dividend of 6.4 US cents and a final dividend of 26.1 US cents per share, totaling 32.5 US cents per share for the year.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Fresnillo
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at £13.70.
- The Future P/E for Fresnillo has significantly fallen from 17.17x to 12.66x.
- The Discount Rate for Fresnillo remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.28% to 9.31%.
Disclaimer
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