Update shared on14 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 2.65%Fresnillo’s analyst price target has been revised higher to £14.56 amid improved silver market fundamentals and a strengthened production outlook, though some caution that valuation now assumes an optimistic silver price scenario with limited downside protection.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite improved silver market fundamentals and strengthening price outlook as key drivers for raising targets.
- Multiple price target increases reflect confidence in Fresnillo’s production profile and operational leverage to higher silver prices.
- Bearish analysts warn that Fresnillo shares are now pricing in an overly optimistic silver price scenario (over $40/oz), leaving little valuation buffer.
- Concerns from bearish analysts include a negative risk-reward skew after the recent sector re-rating, prompting downgrades to Underweight or Hold.
- Preference among some analysts to wait for a more attractive entry point, given current share price levels relative to long-term silver price assumptions.
What's in the News
- Fresnillo declared an interim dividend of 20.8 US cents per share, totaling USD 153.3 million, payable in sterling or US dollars.
- Production guidance for 2025-2027 was updated, with attributable silver for 2025 now expected at 47.5–54.5 moz, gold at 550–590 koz, and similar adjustments for lead and zinc; 2026 and 2027 ranges were also adjusted modestly.
- Q2 2025 operating results showed a year-on-year increase in gold production but declines in silver, lead, and zinc output.
- The company reaffirmed its 2025-2027 production guidance with minor adjustments from previous estimates.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Fresnillo
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from £14.18 to £14.56.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Fresnillo has significantly risen from -1.6% per annum to -0.8% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Fresnillo has significantly fallen from 17.24x to 12.29x.
Disclaimer
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