Update shared on 10 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 6.43%Analysts have sharply increased their price target on Fresnillo, with estimates rising from approximately £22.64 to £24.10 per share. They cite stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and optimism from higher long-term gold price forecasts.
Analyst Commentary
Recent broker research reveals a range of analyst opinions on Fresnillo's prospects, with prevailing sentiment tilted toward optimism, yet some voices highlight ongoing risks.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have sharply increased their price targets, in some cases setting targets well above previous estimates. This is driven by upgraded long-term gold price forecasts.
- Confidence in revenue and margin growth is underpinned by the company's exposure to higher precious metal prices and a positive outlook for European gold miners.
- Several researchers forecast significant upside potential in Fresnillo's valuation through to 2027, pointing to favorable market dynamics and improved execution.
- Maintained Buy or Overweight ratings from key institutions reinforce expectations of ongoing share price appreciation if macroeconomic trends persist.
- Bearish analysts note that, despite improved price targets, fundamental reservations about Fresnillo's operational performance and market risks persist.
- Some maintain Underweight or Hold ratings, citing concerns over execution and whether recent gold price strength is sustainable.
- Cautious voices emphasize potential downside if expected industry tailwinds moderate or if the company faces operational hurdles.
- Ongoing sector volatility and recent downgrades suggest that, while the outlook has brightened, risks remain for investors seeking exposure to gold mining equities.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased from £22.64 to £24.10 per share, reflecting higher long-term expectations.
- The discount rate has risen slightly, from 9.58% to 10.30%, indicating a marginally higher required return.
- Revenue growth estimates have improved from 8.34% to 9.36% annually, suggesting stronger business expansion forecasts.
- Net profit margin has edged higher, moving from 34.53% to 35.85%, pointing to enhanced expected profitability.
- The future P/E ratio remains stable, with only a slight increase from 16.85x to 16.94x, showing consistent valuation expectations.
Disclaimer
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