Fresnillo Dividends and Buybacks
Dividend criteria checks 4/6
Fresnillo is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 3.33% that is well covered by earnings. Next payment date is on 18th September, 2026 with an ex-dividend date of 13th August, 2026.
Key information
3.3%
Dividend yield
n/a
Buyback Yield
| Total Shareholder Yield | n/a |
| Future Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Growth | 14.7% |
| Next dividend pay date | 18 Sep 26 |
| Ex dividend date | 13 Aug 26 |
| Dividend per share | n/a |
| Payout ratio | 49% |
Recent dividend and buyback updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Aug 12
FRES: Improving Fundamentals And Dividend Capacity Will Support Higher Future Multiple
The analyst fair value estimate for Fresnillo has moved from about £28.64 to about £33.30 as analysts factor in a mix of adjusted price targets across the Street, with expectations for improving fundamentals, changes in assumed revenue growth and margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view on the stock, with some analysts pointing to potential upside based on earnings power and others highlighting valuation and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Jul 29
FRES: Higher Precious Metal Output And Execution Progress Will Support Re Rating Potential
Fresnillo's updated fair value estimate edges down to £53.03 from £54.36 as analysts trim price targets, with recent cuts ranging from £2,090 to £4,800, citing valuation and mixed views on growth and profitability to support more cautious assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo highlights a mix of caution and optimism, with several bullish analysts pointing to valuation support and execution potential despite lower price targets.
Narrative Update • Jul 14
FRES: Production Slippage And Execution Risks Will Pressure Future Returns
The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been revised lower by £4.55 to £20.86, with analysts citing updated fair value assumptions and valuation multiples as the key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary on Fresnillo Recent Street research on Fresnillo points to a more cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming their price targets and highlighting risks around valuation assumptions and the company’s ability to execute against expectations.Narrative Update • Jun 30
FRES: Production Slippage And Mixed Street Views Will Shape Future Returns
The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been revised slightly higher to £25.41 from £24.72. Analysts cite updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E as key drivers of the change.Narrative Update • Jun 16
FRES: Higher Revenue Assumptions And Cost Discipline Will Support Re Rating Potential
The analyst price target for Fresnillo has shifted to reflect a modest fair value adjustment to £54.36, as analysts reassessed assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following a series of mixed target changes from Citi, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Berenberg. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Fresnillo highlights a split in opinion, but there are clear areas where bullish analysts see room for the stock to better reflect their reassessed fair value assumptions.Narrative Update • Jun 02
FRES: Higher Revenue And Margin Assumptions Will Support Re Rating Potential
Fresnillo’s updated analyst price target has moved sharply higher to about £53.62 from £20.84, as analysts factor in new assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that differ from recent mixed price target revisions in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some firms cutting price targets while others lift their estimates and reaffirm more cautious ratings.Narrative Update • May 18
FRES: Production Slippage And Diverging Street Views Will Pressure Future Returns
Fresnillo’s updated analyst price target has shifted to reflect mixed recent moves, including a £4.00 increase at Citi and several reductions of £1.00 to £4.00 at other firms, as analysts factor in revised assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some higher price targets sitting alongside a series of reductions.Narrative Update • May 04
FRES: Production Slippage And Mixed Street Views Will Pressure Future Returns
Fresnillo’s analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from £23.88 to £24.72. The change reflects recent mixed price target revisions across the Street and updated assumptions on long term revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 20
FRES: Execution Risks Around Multi Year Production Guidance Will Likely Intensify
The analyst price target for Fresnillo has increased to £23.88 from £21.82, with analysts citing adjusted expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, along with mixed recent target changes from major banks, as support for the new fair value. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a split in sentiment on Fresnillo, with some major banks lifting targets while others have taken a more cautious stance on valuation and execution.Narrative Update • Feb 22
FRES: Mixed Rating Shifts Will Likely Expose Mounting Execution Risk
The Fresnillo analyst price target has been reduced by about £0.17 per share, as analysts factor in slightly higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, together with a modestly lower P/E and discount rate following recent mixed rating and target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo shows a split view, with some firms lifting targets while others trim expectations or ratings.Narrative Update • Feb 07
FRES: Higher Revenue Hopes Will Likely Mask Growing Execution Risk
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Fresnillo from £16.62 to £21.99 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, a lower future P/E multiple, and recent mixed but generally higher Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo has sent mixed signals, with several firms adjusting price targets in different directions and one downgrade in the mix.Narrative Update • Jan 24
FRES: Higher Metal Price Optimism Will Likely Mask Execution And Margin Risks
Analysts have modestly revised their fair value estimate for Fresnillo to £16.62 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue, profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E multiple following recent price target increases from several banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Fresnillo points to a mixed stance, with some high profile price target adjustments sitting alongside more cautious views on the shares.Analysis Article • Jan 16
Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump
Fresnillo plc ( LON:FRES ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. The...Narrative Update • Jan 09
FRES: Elevated Gold Price Forecasts Will Likely Drive Future Multiple Compression
Fresnillo’s updated fair value estimate has moved from £24.12 to £28.64 per share. This reflects analysts’ higher price targets and refreshed assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels.Narrative Update • Dec 23
FRES: Higher Precious Metal Price Hopes Will Likely Overstate Future Earnings Potential
Fresnillo's analyst price target has been lifted sharply, rising from about 950 GBp to a range of 3,000 to 4,300 GBp, as analysts factor in stronger expected revenue growth, higher profit margins and a more constructive long-term precious metals price outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent target price revisions for Fresnillo highlight a wide dispersion in analyst expectations, reflecting divergent views on the sustainability of the company’s earnings recovery and leverage to higher precious metals prices.Analysis Article • Dec 23
These 4 Measures Indicate That Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Is Using Debt Safely
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Narrative Update • Dec 09
FRES: Elevated Gold Price Assumptions Will Likely Expose Downside If Metals Normalize
Our analyst price target for Fresnillo has been raised in line with the Street, which has lifted targets as high as 4,300 GBp per share. This reflects analysts' increasingly optimistic assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and long term precious metal pricing.Analysis Article • Dec 02
Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, Fresnillo plc ( LON:FRES ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last...Narrative Update • Nov 25
FRES: Higher Gold Price Forecasts Will Drive Moderate Upside Amid Ongoing Market Risks
Fresnillo's analyst price target has increased from £24.10 to £24.24 per share. Analysts cite improving revenue growth, stronger profit margins, and positive sector sentiment as key drivers for the upward revision.Analysis Article • Nov 20
Here's Why We Think Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Is Well Worth Watching
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Narrative Update • Nov 10
FRES: Increased Gold Price Forecasts Will Influence Share Performance Amid Sector Volatility
Analysts have sharply increased their price target on Fresnillo, with estimates rising from approximately £22.64 to £24.10 per share. They cite stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and optimism from higher long-term gold price forecasts.Narrative Update • Oct 27
Long-Term Gold Price Strength Will Drive Profitability And Earnings Outlook
Fresnillo's analyst price target has been raised significantly, increasing from £18.36 to £22.64, as analysts anticipate stronger revenue growth and improved profit margins. This change is driven by higher long-term gold price forecasts.Narrative Update • Oct 13
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
The analyst price target for Fresnillo has been raised significantly from £16.26 to £18.36. Analysts cite expectations for improved revenue growth and sector tailwinds that may support higher future valuations.Narrative Update • Sep 29
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
Analysts have raised Fresnillo’s price target to £16.26, driven by bullish views on sustained higher silver prices and improved operating outlook, though some caution that current valuations already reflect lofty silver price assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite a substantially improved silver price backdrop, raising expectations for Fresnillo's earnings and cash flows.Analysis Article • Sep 18
Is Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Sep 14
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
Fresnillo’s analyst price target has been revised higher to £14.56 amid improved silver market fundamentals and a strengthened production outlook, though some caution that valuation now assumes an optimistic silver price scenario with limited downside protection. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite improved silver market fundamentals and strengthening price outlook as key drivers for raising targets.Narrative Update • Aug 30
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
Fresnillo's consensus analyst price target was raised to £14.18 as analysts anticipate stronger earnings and cash flows on higher silver price forecasts, though concerns remain that the current share price already reflects overly optimistic long-term silver assumptions and presents a less compelling risk-reward, limiting further upside at current valuation. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets based on a substantially improved silver price outlook and more favorable sector backdrop.Analysis Article • Aug 28
After Leaping 26% Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar
Fresnillo plc ( LON:FRES ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The...Narrative Update • Aug 15
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
Despite improved silver price outlooks and operational momentum underpinning bullish sentiment, analysts note that current valuation already prices in optimistic assumptions and offers limited upside, resulting in the consensus price target for Fresnillo holding steady at £13.70. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite a substantially improved outlook for silver prices, supporting upward revisions in price targets.
New Narrative • Mar 09
Exploration Efforts At Ciénega And San Julian Will Extend Mine Life
Operational discipline and infrastructure improvements are set to enhance production efficiency, lower costs, and potentially boost future net margins and earnings.Stability and Growth of Payments
Fetching dividends data
Stable Dividend: FRES's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: FRES's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Dividend Yield vs Market
| Fresnillo Dividend Yield vs Market |
|---|
| Segment | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|
| Company (FRES) | 3.3% |
| Market Bottom 25% (GB) | 2.1% |
| Market Top 25% (GB) | 5.3% |
| Industry Average (Metals and Mining) | 2.7% |
| Analyst forecast (FRES) (up to 3 years) | 4.3% |
Notable Dividend: FRES's dividend (3.33%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (2.06%).
High Dividend: FRES's dividend (3.33%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.31%).
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (49%), FRES's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (42%), FRES's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/08/18 22:48 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/08/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Fresnillo plc is covered by 28 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Simon Butler | Barclays |
| Amos Fletcher | Barclays |
| Richard Hatch | Berenberg |