Pan African Resources PLC

AIM:PAF Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£601.8m

Pan African Resources Valuation

Is PAF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PAF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PAF (£0.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£0.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PAF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PAF?

Key metric: As PAF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PAF. This is calculated by dividing PAF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PAF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.6x
EarningsUS$79.38m
Market CapUS$758.65m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PAF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PAF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average54.9x
HOC Hochschild Mining
46.5x51.1%UK£1.1b
CEY Centamin
24.3x23.9%UK£1.6b
SRB Serabi Gold
7.1x45.0%UK£61.3m
AAU Ariana Resources
141.5xn/aUK£45.9m
PAF Pan African Resources
9.6x28.8%UK£601.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (54.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PAF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.9x-60.3%US$120.92m
PAF 9.6xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PAF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PAF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.6x
Fair PE Ratio20.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PAF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PAF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£0.31
UK£0.42
+33.8%
5.1%UK£0.45UK£0.40n/a4
Nov ’25UK£0.36
UK£0.37
+4.3%
7.4%UK£0.40UK£0.34n/a4
Oct ’25UK£0.33
UK£0.35
+7.3%
7.6%UK£0.40UK£0.33n/a4
Sep ’25UK£0.31
UK£0.34
+9.7%
8.6%UK£0.38UK£0.30n/a4
Aug ’25UK£0.29
UK£0.34
+16.2%
8.6%UK£0.38UK£0.30n/a4
Jul ’25UK£0.27
UK£0.32
+19.0%
10.4%UK£0.38UK£0.30n/a4
Jun ’25UK£0.26
UK£0.29
+12.5%
10.0%UK£0.32UK£0.25n/a4
May ’25UK£0.25
UK£0.28
+11.3%
8.3%UK£0.31UK£0.25n/a4
Apr ’25UK£0.23
UK£0.25
+12.6%
8.1%UK£0.28UK£0.23n/a3
Mar ’25UK£0.20
UK£0.24
+23.0%
3.9%UK£0.25UK£0.23n/a3
Feb ’25UK£0.18
UK£0.21
+20.0%
17.6%UK£0.25UK£0.16n/a4
Jan ’25UK£0.17
UK£0.21
+27.5%
17.6%UK£0.25UK£0.16n/a4
Dec ’24UK£0.17
UK£0.23
+29.0%
16.8%UK£0.25UK£0.16n/a4
Nov ’24UK£0.16
UK£0.23
+38.5%
16.8%UK£0.25UK£0.16UK£0.364
Oct ’24UK£0.14
UK£0.23
+56.5%
16.8%UK£0.25UK£0.16UK£0.334
Sep ’24UK£0.14
UK£0.23
+61.4%
16.8%UK£0.25UK£0.16UK£0.314
Aug ’24UK£0.14
UK£0.23
+55.2%
16.8%UK£0.25UK£0.16UK£0.294
Jul ’24UK£0.13
UK£0.24
+91.7%
5.1%UK£0.25UK£0.22UK£0.274
Jun ’24UK£0.14
UK£0.24
+71.8%
7.4%UK£0.27UK£0.22UK£0.264
May ’24UK£0.18
UK£0.26
+46.9%
16.1%UK£0.33UK£0.22UK£0.254
Apr ’24UK£0.17
UK£0.26
+53.8%
18.5%UK£0.33UK£0.20UK£0.234
Mar ’24UK£0.14
UK£0.25
+77.3%
17.1%UK£0.32UK£0.20UK£0.204
Feb ’24UK£0.16
UK£0.26
+55.1%
16.8%UK£0.32UK£0.20UK£0.184
Jan ’24UK£0.17
UK£0.24
+46.6%
10.7%UK£0.27UK£0.20UK£0.174
Dec ’23UK£0.18
UK£0.25
+43.6%
13.2%UK£0.29UK£0.20UK£0.174
Nov ’23UK£0.17
UK£0.25
+46.3%
13.2%UK£0.29UK£0.20UK£0.164

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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