Stock Analysis

Investors who have held Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) over the last three years have watched its earnings decline along with their investment

AIM:CAML
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Central Asia Metals plc (LON:CAML) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. Truth be told the share price declined 30% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

While the stock has risen 11% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

View our latest analysis for Central Asia Metals

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years that the share price fell, Central Asia Metals' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 68% each year. In comparison the 11% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines. With a P/E ratio of 291.25, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
AIM:CAML Earnings Per Share Growth March 16th 2024

This free interactive report on Central Asia Metals' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Central Asia Metals' TSR for the last 3 years was -10%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Central Asia Metals shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 8.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.9% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Central Asia Metals you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Central Asia Metals is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.